Prospects for Resilience by Eric W. Sanderson

Author:Eric W. Sanderson
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Island Press
Published: 2016-07-16T16:00:00+00:00

Climate Hazard Indicators

Climate hazards from severe storms, coastal and upland flooding, and heat waves are at the center of the conversation about resilience for Jamaica Bay.

Policy Relevance and Analytical Soundness

Clearly, climate hazards from severe storms and storm surges are of critical relevance to Jamaica Bay and other coastal watersheds. Climate change is projected to result in further increases in temperature, precipitation, and extreme events (Walsh et al., 2014; NPCC, 2013), which will have significant impacts on estuarine circulation, sediment transport, water quality, and biodiversity of Jamaica Bay (Zappa et al., 2003, 2007; MacCready and Geyer, 2010; Anthony et al., 2009; Orton et al., 2010). From 1900 to 2011, the mean annual temperature in New York City increased 36.3°F (2.4°C), and the mean yearly rainfall increased by 0.6 feet (19.6 cm) (NPCC, 2013). Sea level at the Battery has risen 1 foot (0.34 m) since 1900, and evidence suggests it is likely that sea levels may rise faster along the northeast coast with climate change (NPCC, 2013). These changes will result in an increased coastal flooding risk, as well as changes in estuarine circulation and retention times. Indicators of weather and climate for Jamaica Bay will enable managers to characterize the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events as drivers of disturbance to Jamaica Bay (e.g., Hurricane Sandy; figure 7-4).

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